Nauru, Central Pacific. My childhood home, and a canonical case of the resource curse.

Working Papers

Do Natural Amenities Promote Growth? Evidence from Surf Breaks with McGregor, T., OxCarre Working Paper No. 170, University of Oxford (Ideasslides May 2016)

Optimal Monetary Responses to News of an Oil Discovery OxCarre Working Paper No. 121, University of Oxford

Why do so many oil exporters peg their currency? Foreign reserves as a de-facto sovereign wealth fund with Van der Ploeg, R., IMF Conference proceedings 2014

 Integrating Financial and Demographic Longevity Risk Models: A Model for Financial Applications with Sherris, M., UNSW Working paper

  • Awarded Best Paper Prize at 18th International Actuarial Approach for Financial Risks (AFIR) Colloquium, Rome 2008

Published Papers

[15] Sovereign Wealth Funds in Theory and Practice (2022) with James, A., Retting, T., Shogren, J.F., and Watson, B., Annual Review of Resource Economics 14:621-646 (pdf)

[14] The Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory Project Part II: multiple equilibria, toy models, and policy models in a new macroeconomic paradigm (2020) with Vines, D., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(3):427-497 (Working Paper)

[13] A Workable Strategy for Covid-19 Testing: Stratified Periodic Testing rather than Universal Random Testing (2020) with Cleevely, M., Susskind, D., Vines, D., and Vines, L., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(Supplement 1):S14–S37 (CEPR Covid Economics 8, Working Paper, 21-Apr-20; INET Oxford Working Paper)

  • Impact: Submitted to UK Prime Minister’s office, with email confirmation that it made a “valuable and significant contribution to UK COVID policy”. Also contributed the testing strategy of Cambridge University
  • Media: VoxEU (06/05/20)

[12] Inequality: An Assessment (2019) with Mayhew, K., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 35(3):351-367 (pdf)

[11] Measuring Inequality (2019) with McGregor, T. and Smith, B., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 35(3):368-395 (pdf; working paper)

[10] Left in the Dark? Oil and Rural Poverty (2018) with Smith, B., Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (JAERE), 5(4) (pdf; Appendixworking paper)

[9] Leave the Volatility Fund Alone: Principles for Managing Oil Wealth (2018), Journal of Macroeconomics, 55:332-352 (final working paper; first version)

  • Impact: This research underpinned policy advice I provided to the IGC/Government of Ghana and the World Bank on Uganda, Iraq and Libya

[8] The rebuilding macroeconomic theory project: an analytical assessment (2018) with Vines, D., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2):1-42 (working paper)

[7] The financial system and the natural real interest rate: towards a ‘new benchmark theory model’ (2018) with Vines, D., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2):252-268 (working paper)

[6] The Elephant in the Ground: Managing Oil and Sovereign Wealth (2016) with van den Bremer, T. and van der Ploeg, R., European Economic Review, 82:113-131 (pdf)

[5] Resource Funds: Stabilizing Parking and Intergenerational Transfer (2016) with Venables, T., Journal of African Economies, 25 (Supp 2): ii20–ii40 (working paper)

[4] Sovereign Wealth Funds and Natural Resource Management in Africa (2016) with Senbet, L., and Simbanegavi, W., Journal of African Economies, 25 (Supp 2): ii3-ii19

[3] An Empirical Sectoral Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Impact of QE (2015) with Cloyne, J., Thomas, R., and Tuckett, A. The Manchester School, Vol 83: 51-82 (pdf)

  • Impact: This model is now part of the Bank of England’s “suite” used to inform Monetary Policy Committee decisions.

[2] Securitization, structuring and pricing of longevity risk (2010) with Sherris, M. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol 46(1): 173-185 (pdf)

  • Impact: >100 citations. Nominated for the H M Jackson Prize of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia, for the top paper by an Australian actuary. This contributed to the creation of a new market in “longevity bonds” (e.g. Swiss Re’s 2010 $50m Kortis Bond). Written while I was an undergraduate.

[1] Financial Innovation and the Hedging of Longevity Risk (2008) with Sherris, M., Asia Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol 3(1): 1-14