- Media coverage: Today Program, BBC Radio 4 (30/07/2016, permanent link); The Atlantic (02/08/2016); Canadian Broadcasting Corporation – interviewed on 24 radio stations (16/08/2016); Phys.org (02/08/2016); Hindustan Times (29/07/2016); Manila Times (01/08/2016); University of Oxford (01/08/2016); University of Sydney (03/08/2016); VoxEU (28/08/2016)
Leave the Volatility Fund Alone: Principles for Managing Oil Wealth (2018), Journal of Macroeconomics, 55:332-352 (final working paper; first version)
The rebuilding macroeconomic theory project: an analytical assessment (2018) with Vines, D., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2):1-42 (working paper)
- Part of a special double issue I co-edited on the future of macroeconomic theory. Articles contributed by O. Blanchard, S. Wren-Lewis, J.E. Stiglitz, R. Wright, R. Reis, P. Krugman, W. Carlin and D. Soskice, F. Ghironi, A.G. Haldane and A.E. Turrell, J. Linde, D.F. Hendry and J.N.J. Muellbauer, W.J. McKibbin and A. Stoeckel. (Promotional material)
- Media coverage: Financial Times (i) (pdf, 16/01/2018); Financial Times (ii) (pdf, 16/01/2018); Financial Times (iii) (pdf, 18/01/2018); Financial Times (iv) (pdf, 18/01/2018); Financial Times (v) (26/01/2018); Financial Times (vi) (pdf, 20/03/2018); The Australian Financial Review (20/03/2018); Central Banking (08/01/2018); Tony Blair Institute (19/01/2018); El Cronista (26/03/2018); Il Sole 24 Ore (25/03/2018); Folha de Sao Paulo (26/03/2018); El Financiero (21/03/2018); Quartz (18/12/2018)
The financial system and the natural real interest rate: towards a ‘new benchmark theory model’ (2018) with Vines, D., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2):252-268 (working paper)
The Elephant in the Ground: Managing Oil and Sovereign Wealth (2016) with van den Bremer, T. and van der Ploeg, R., European Economic Review, 82:113-131 (working paper)
- Media coverage: VoxEU (10/10/2014); Financial Times (07/03/2014); Stroock Public Forum (from 1hr 20min, 24/08/2016); Wyoming PBS Interview (26/08/2016)
- Impact: The Norwegian government has decided to invest 70% of their ~$900 billion sovereign wealth fund in equities, up from 60%; and spend 3%, rather than 4%, of their fund each year in line with the recommendations of our paper (section 6).
Financial Times (17/10/2016); Press Release (18/10/2016), VoxEU (18/10/2016); Financial Times (18/10/2016); Press release (16/11/2017). The report into whether Norway’s GPFG should divest oil and gas equities also drew repeatedly on the findings in our paper Financial Times (24/08/2018); Report (in Norwegian) Report PDF (in Norwegian).
Resource Funds: Stabilizing Parking and Intergenerational Transfer (2016) with Venables, T., Journal of African Economies, 25 (Supp 2): ii20–ii40 (working paper)
- Resource funds: Stabilization, parking, and intergenerational transfer :: Brookings Institution, 18 September 2015
- Economic principles for resource revenue management :: IMF Research Bulletin, 16(3), September 2015
- Media coverage: The Economist (16/03/2017)
Sovereign Wealth Funds and Natural Resource Management in Africa (2016) with Senbet, L., and Simbanegavi, W., Journal of African Economies, 25 (Supp 2): ii3-ii19
An Empirical Sectoral Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Impact of QE (2015) with Cloyne, J., Thomas, R., and Tuckett, A. The Manchester School, Vol 83: 51-82 (pdf)
- Written during secondment as the David Walton Scholar at the Bank of England.
- This model is now part of a suite used to inform Monetary Policy Committee decisions.
Securitization, structuring and pricing of longevity risk (2010) with Sherris, M. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol 46(1): 173-185 (pdf)
- Sixth most cited paper published in the top actuarial journal (since 2009).
- Nominated for the H M Jackson Prize of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia, for the top paper by an Australian actuary.
- Part of my undergraduate thesis in Actuarial Studies at UNSW.
Financial Innovation and the Hedging of Longevity Risk (2008) with Sherris, M., Asia Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol 3(1): 1-14
We investigate whether the geographic determinants of growth extend to natural amenities. We combine data on spatial and temporal variation in the quality of over 5000 surf breaks globally with data on local economic performance, proxied by night-time lights. We document a strong association between natural amenity quality and local economic development. Economic activity grows faster near good surf breaks; following the discovery of new breaks, or the technology needed to ride them; and during El Niño events that generate high-quality waves. The effects are concentrated in nearby towns and emerging economies, and population changes are consistent with tourism.
- Media coverage: Bloomberg (US) (also Yahoo Finance; 20/03/2017); Bloomberg podcast (20/04/2017); The Financial Times (07/01/2017); The Economist (08/08/2016); BBC World (Spanish) (15/08/2016); Fox News (24/03/2017); Australian Financial Review (pdf; 14/03/2017); ABC News (15/02/2017); ABC Online (radio) (14/03/2017); Travel + Leisure (22/03/2017); Hawaii Public Radio (21/03/2017); Gold Coast Bulletin (15/03/2017); Daily Telegraph (15/03/2017); NT News (15/02/2017); Gizmodo (14/03/2017); The Inertia (14/03/2017); The West Australian (14/03/2017); Phys.org (14/03/2017); Business Insider (13/03/2017); The University of Sydney (13/02/2017); Chris Blattman’s Blog (29/07/2016); NPR Planet Money (Twitter) (10/08/2016); The Change Agenda (Youtube) (31/03/2016); Stab Magazine (08/04/2016); Surfline (13/08/2016); The Wave (12/08/2016); Surfing Life (11/08/2016); Ocean Living Lab (French) (11/08/2016); Tiempo (Spanish) (15/08/2016); BankingNews (Greek) (08/08/2016); Travel + Leisure (18/08/2016); L’Economiste (French) (26/08/2016); Handelsblatt Global (10/03/2018); New Zealand Geographic
- Submitted as court evidence by the Surfbreak Protection Society for protecting the Mangamaunu surf break (NZ).
Optimal Monetary Responses to News of an Oil Discovery (2015) OxCarre Working Paper No. 121, University of Oxford
This paper studies how monetary policy should optimally respond to an oil discovery. Oil discoveries provide news that the natural level of output will increase in the future. Anticipated increases in natural output lower the natural real interest rate. Optimal monetary policy must accommodate these changes, and is well-approximated by a Taylor rule that responds to the natural rate of interest. Failure to accommodate these changes, as in a peg or naive Taylor rule, can cause forward-looking inflation and a recession. To illustrate this I incorporate a government, oil and news into a standard DSGE model of a small open economy that permits an analytical solution for optimal policy. I then use the model to present a novel explanation for UK stagflation in the 1980s after North Sea Oil began production.
Integrating Financial and Demographic Longevity Risk Models: A Model for Financial Applications (2008) with Sherris, M., UNSW Working paper
- Awarded Best Paper Prize at 18th International Actuarial Approach for Financial Risks (AFIR) Colloquium, Rome 2008