Working Papers

Do Natural Amenities Promote Growth? Evidence from Surf Breaks with McGregor, T., OxCarre Working Paper No. 170, University of Oxford (Ideas; slides May 2016)

• Impact: Submitted as evidence to a New Zealand court by the Surfbreak Protection Society in a case to protect the Mangamaunu surf break, which was ultimately successful. Referenced by the IADB and the Government of El Salvador in its “Surf City” development program.
• Media: Bloomberg (US) (also Yahoo Finance); Bloomberg podcast; The Financial Times; The Economist; BBC World (Spanish); Fox News; Australian Financial Review (pdf); ABC News; ABC Online (radio); Travel + Leisure; Hawaii Public Radio; Gold Coast Bulletin; Daily Telegraph; NT News; Gizmodo; The Inertia; The West Australian; Phys.org; Business Insider; The University of Sydney; Chris Blattman’s Blog; NPR Planet Money (Twitter); The Change Agenda (Youtube); Stab Magazine; Surfline; The Wave; Surfing Life;  Ocean Living Lab (French); Tiempo (Spanish); BankingNews (Greek); Travel + Leisure; L’Economiste (French); Handelsblatt Global; New Zealand Geographic

Optimal Monetary Responses to News of an Oil Discovery OxCarre Working Paper No. 121, University of Oxford

Why do so many oil exporters peg their currency? Foreign reserves as a de-facto sovereign wealth fund with Van der Ploeg, R., IMF Conference proceedings 2014

 Integrating Financial and Demographic Longevity Risk Models: A Model for Financial Applications with Sherris, M., UNSW Working paper

• Awarded Best Paper Prize at 18^th International Actuarial Approach for Financial Risks (AFIR) Colloquium, Rome 2008

Published Papers

[15] Sovereign Wealth Funds in Theory and Practice (2022) with James, A., Retting, T., Shogren, J.F., and Watson, B., Annual Review of Resource Economics 14:621-646 (pdf)

[14] The Rebuilding Macroeconomic Theory Project Part II: multiple equilibria, toy models, and policy models in a new macroeconomic paradigm (2020) with Vines, D., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(3):427-497 (Working Paper)

• Media: Financial Times (29/01/21, pdf); INET Blog (08/03/2021)

[13] A Workable Strategy for Covid-19 Testing: Stratified Periodic Testing rather than Universal Random Testing (2020) with Cleevely, M., Susskind, D., Vines, D., and Vines, L., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(Supplement 1):S14–S37 (CEPR Covid Economics 8, Working Paper, 21-Apr-20; INET Oxford Working Paper)

• Impact: Submitted to UK Prime Minister’s office, with email confirmation that it made a “valuable and significant contribution to UK COVID policy”. Also contributed the testing strategy of Cambridge University
• Media: VoxEU (06/05/20)

[12] Inequality: An Assessment (2019) with Mayhew, K., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 35(3):351-367 (pdf)

• Media: Blog post, VoxEU (18/06/20)

[11] Measuring Inequality (2019) with McGregor, T. and Smith, B., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 35(3):368-395 (pdf; working paper)

[10] Left in the Dark? Oil and Rural Poverty (2018) with Smith, B., Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (JAERE), 5(4) (pdf; Appendix; working paper)

• Awarded the 2018 Ralph C. d’Arge and Allen V. Kneese Award for the best paper in the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists
• Media: Today Program, BBC Radio 4 (permanent link); The Atlantic; Canadian Broadcasting Corporation – interviewed on 24 radio stations (16/08/2016); Phys.org; Hindustan Times; Manila Times; University of Oxford; University of Sydney; VoxEU

[9] Leave the Volatility Fund Alone: Principles for Managing Oil Wealth (2018), Journal of Macroeconomics, 55:332-352 (final working paper; first version)

• Impact: This research underpinned policy advice I provided to the IGC/Government of Ghana and the World Bank on Uganda, Iraq and Libya

[8] The rebuilding macroeconomic theory project: an analytical assessment (2018) with Vines, D., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2):1-42 (working paper)

• Impact: David Vines and I co-organised this project bringing together 18 leading macroeconomists to discuss how theory should respond to the 2008 crisis. Published as a special double issue with contributions by O. Blanchard, S. Wren-Lewis, J. Stiglitz, R. Wright, R. Reis, P. Krugman, W. Carlin and D. Soskice, F. Ghironi, A. Haldane and A. Turrell, J. Linde, D. Hendry and J. Muellbauer, W. McKibbin and A. Stoeckel.  (Promotional material)
• In the top 5 most cited papers in the Oxford Review of Economic Policy (accessed Jun-20). Two other papers from this project were also in the top 5.
• Media: Financial Times (i) (pdf);  Financial Times (ii) (pdf); Financial Times (iii) (pdf); Financial Times (iv) (pdf); Financial Times (v); Financial Times (vi) (pdf); The Australian Financial Review; Central Banking; Tony Blair Institute; El Cronista; Il Sole 24 Ore; Folha de Sao Paulo; El Financiero; Quartz; Morgenbladet; La nouvel Economist

[7] The financial system and the natural real interest rate: towards a ‘new benchmark theory model’ (2018) with Vines, D., Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(1-2):252-268 (working paper)

[6] The Elephant in the Ground: Managing Oil and Sovereign Wealth (2016) with van den Bremer, T. and van der Ploeg, R., European Economic Review, 82:113-131 (pdf)

• Impact: We presented our findings to Norway’s Ministry of Finance, who set the remit for the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund. Norway has decided to increase their equity mix, reduce their spending rule, and divest stocks most exposed to the oil price, in line with the recommendations of our paper (section 6), which is cited in the following report (pdf, in Norwegian). Financial Times; Press release; VoxEU; Financial Times; Press release; Financial Times.
• Media: VoxEU (10/10/2014); Financial Times (07/03/2014); Stroock Public Forum (from 1hr 20min, 24/08/2016); Wyoming PBS Interview (26/08/2016)

[5] Resource Funds: Stabilizing Parking and Intergenerational Transfer (2016) with Venables, T., Journal of African Economies, 25 (Supp 2): ii20–ii40 (working paper)

• Media: The Economist; Brookings Institution; IMF Research Bulletin

[4] Sovereign Wealth Funds and Natural Resource Management in Africa (2016) with Senbet, L., and Simbanegavi, W., Journal of African Economies, 25 (Supp 2): ii3-ii19

[3] An Empirical Sectoral Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Impact of QE (2015) with Cloyne, J., Thomas, R., and Tuckett, A. The Manchester School, Vol 83: 51-82 (pdf)

• Impact: This model is now part of the Bank of England’s “suite” used to inform Monetary Policy Committee decisions.

[2] Securitization, structuring and pricing of longevity risk (2010) with Sherris, M. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Vol 46(1): 173-185 (pdf)

• Impact: >100 citations. Nominated for the H M Jackson Prize of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia, for the top paper by an Australian actuary. This contributed to the creation of a new market in “longevity bonds” (e.g. Swiss Re’s 2010 $50m Kortis Bond). Written while I was an undergraduate.

[1] Financial Innovation and the Hedging of Longevity Risk (2008) with Sherris, M., Asia Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol 3(1): 1-14